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Macroeconomic Forecast Mexico

May 2012 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

As of April, Mexico posted a goods trade surplus of US$560mn, bringing the year-to-date trade balance to US$2.3bn, below the US$2.5bn recorded in the previous year. Despite fairly robust 13.6% y-o-y growth in non-oil exports, total exports only grew by 11.3% y-o-y, dragged down by fairly weak 1.4% expansion in oil exports. Given weak Brent crude prices, we expect oil export growth to stay similarly subdued in coming months. Meanwhile, imports expanded by 12.1% y-o-y, bolstered by 17.6% y-o-y growth in the consumer goods subcomponent, in line with our view that strong credit growth and more moderate unemployment levels would encourage greater consumer spending.

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