Macroeconomic Forecast EcuadorMay 2012 | Macroeconomic Forecasts
Foreign reserves came in stronger than we expected in April at US$3.7bn, encouraging us to revise up our end of year 2012 forecast from US$2.0bn to US$2.5bn. Oil prices remained elevated during the first few months of the year, and with our Oil & Gas team forecasting the price of Brent crude to average US$115/bbd in 2012, Ecuador will continue to accumulate reserves. However, we believe reserves will decline later in the year, as we expect the current administration to dip into reserves to fund its expansive fiscal policies ahead of the 2013 elections.
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