Macroeconomic Forecast Colombia

Colombia continues to accumulate reserves, growing by 9.8% y-o-y in April to reach US$33.5bn. This is aligned with our 2012 eop reserve forecast of US$36.0bn. Colombia's reserve stock has benefited from elevated oil prices which has increased the value of its petroleum exports. However, if oil prices were to significantly deviate from our Oil & Gas team's estimated US$115/bbd average price for Brent crude in 2012, it would encourage us to make a revision to our reserves forecast.

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