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Economy / Argentina

Macroeconomic Forecast Argentina

May 2012 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: Consumer price inflation figures from Argentina's national statistics agency show a slight uptick in price pressures in March 2012, to 9.8% y-o-y from 9.7% in February. However, the true inflation rate lies somewhere closer to the 25-30% mark, according to more reliable estimates. For instance, according to the monthly study from the Torcuato Di Tella university, inflation expectations reached 30% in March, suggesting our own end-2012 inflation forecast of 20% may be too low. However, we prefer to see whether moderating commodity prices bring down imported-inflation over the next few months before revising down our forecast.

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