Macroeconomic Forecast VenezuelaMay 2012 | Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI View: Foreign reserve levels in Venezuela have remained steady around the US$25-30bn range over the past few quarters, although we do not expect this to last. As the government spends heavily ahead of the October elections, and oil prices stumble from recent highs - we are forecasting Brent crude prices to average US$115/bbl this year, implying a fall from current levels - the authorities will have to continue dipping into reserves to prevent an aggressive devaluation of the official exchange rate. We therefore hold to our end-2012 foreign reserve projection of US$22.0bn.
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