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Economy / Ecuador

Macroeconomic Forecast Ecuador

May 2012 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: Although unemployment has been declining steadily since 2009, we expect 2012 and 2013 to mark a turning point in this trend. With economic activity set to moderate, as the returns to growth from the government's expansive fiscal policy run out of steam, we expect Ecuador's jobless rate to tick up steadily over the next few years, reaching 6.0% by end-2013, from 5.0% in 2011, and 7.0% by 2016. While this represents our view that Ecuador's current growth model is currently unsustainable, should oil prices drop off significantly the labour picture could be much worse.

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