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Economy / Jamaica

Macroeconomic Forecast Jamaica

April 2012 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

February inflation data confirms our forecast for consumer prices in Jamaica, which we expect will reach 8.0% by the end of 2012. The consumer price index (CPI) came in at 7.9% y-o-y in February, up from 6.6% in January. However, given that our Oil and Gas team believes oil prices will remain elevated this year, we note upside risks to our view of Jamaica's inflationary outlook. The island has suffered from structurally high inflation over the last few years, and as we highlighted in our economic outlook, elevated oil prices have a significant negative impact on Jamaica's trade account.

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