Macroeconomic Forecast GuatemalaApril 2012 | Macroeconomic Forecasts
As of February 2012, Guatemala recorded a substantial year-to-date US$1.0bn goods trade deficit, on the back of continued import growth of 11.3% y-o-y and a sharp 3.9% y-o-y contraction in exports. We attribute the drop in exports in large part to the recent fall in the price of coffee, the country's largest single export. With our Agribusiness team forecasting that coffee prices will remain significantly off their 2011 highs, we expect that exports will remain relatively subdued in coming months. This supports our forecast that Guatemala will have a substantially wider current account deficit in 2012 than 2011 due to a sharp deterioration in the country's goods trade account.
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