Macroeconomic Forecast Paraguay

BMI View: Paraguay's trade balance deteriorated markedly in Q411, as a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the region of San Pedro saw beef exports plummet. Total exports came in at US$1.1 in Q411, while imports stood at US$2.9bn. In the wake of a second FMD outbreak in early January, we believe it will take a few quarters for the country's exports to recover, and we are therefore revising down our 2012 current account forecast to a deficit of 4.7% of GDP from a deficit of 1.4% previously.

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