Macroeconomic Forecast Costa Rica

The Banco Central de Costa Rica (BBCR) held its policy rate at 5.0% in December for the seventh straight month. This decision was based on dynamic, but stable growth in credit to the private sector and inflation remaining well within the BCCR's target band of 4%-6%, coming in at 4.9% y-o-y in November. We forecast the policy rate to come in at at 5.0% by end-2012, though we may be encouraged to revise down our forecast if global macroeconomic headwinds begin to weigh on Costa Rican growth in the coming months.

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