Macroeconomic Forecast Colombia

BMI View: Colombia's Q311 real GDP data, released in late December, exceeded expectations with growth coming in at 7.7% y-o-y. According to the central bank, domestic demand continues to drive the economy on the back of relatively low real interest rates, strong credit growth and historically low levels of unemployment. We believe this indicates that growth has not yet peaked in Colombia, and are could well revise up our 2012 growth forecasts, from 4.5% y-o-y at present, if we see signs that this trend has continued in Q112.

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