Macroeconomic Forecast Jamaica

Consumer price inflation in Jamaica ticked up to 8.0% y-o-y in September, up from 7.8% y-o-y the previous month. This reading is broadly in line with our end-2011 inflation forecast of 9.0% y-o-y. However, we expect lower domestic demand and moderating global commodity prices, which have been cooling since the second half of 2011, to create disinflationary pressures going into 2012. Therefore, we are revising down our end-2012 forecast to 8.0% y-o-y, from a previous 10.0% y-o-y.

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