Macroeconomic Forecast Honduras

BMI View: The Honduran consumer price index (CPI) rose by 5.9%y-o-y in October 2011, its lowest level in 2011, and we expect further slowing through 2012. In the first 10 months of 2011, inflation averaged 7.0% y-o-y on the back of elevated energy and food prices. We expect a slight reduction through the end of 2011 however, in line with our own average inflation forecast of 6.8% y-o-y, as we see commodity and crude oil prices continuing to moderate from their mid-2011 highs. Similarly, we forecast moderate inflation of 6.5% as of end-2012 due to consistently mild imported price pressures.

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