Macroeconomic Forecast Uruguay

BMI View: Consumer price inflation accelerated slightly in October, coming in at 0.7% m-o-m and 7.9% y-o-y, prompting us to upwardly revise our forecast for end-2011 to 7.5% from 6.0% previously. While we do not think the central bank will hike interest rates in the near term to curb the rise in consumer prices, we believe some of the external inflationary pressures on the Uruguayan economy will ease in 2012, and we are therefore sticking to our end-2012 inflation forecast of 6.3%.

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