Macroeconomic Forecast Uruguay

Consumer price inflation came in at 7.8% y-o-y and 0.5% m-o-m in September, reversing a downward trend that had been in place for two months and posing increasing upward risks to our end-2011 inflation forecast of 6.0%. Moreover, we highlight that the Uruguayan central bank has appeared so far reluctant to raise its policy rate above 8.0%, in light of global macroeconomic uncertainties and the possibility of a slowdown of the domestic economy.

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