Macroeconomic Forecast Bolivia

Bolivia's Q111 trade balance narrowed by 7.3%, despite robust growth in exports, largely from the natural gas sector. Exports increased by 23.9% while imports outpaced, increasing by 33.5% in the same period. The increase in export earnings can be partially attributed to the rise in natural gas prices, although we caution that Bolivia remains heavily dependent on gas exports, and should wholesale prices start to fall, we could see the trade balance eroded even more rapidly. We anticipate imports to continue outpacing exports over the medium-term, as export volume growth slows over the coming years.

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