Macroeconomic Forecast Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico's trade surplus was US$1.3bn in March 2011, up from US$725mn from the previous month, and bringing the year-to-date surplus at US$2.4bn. While total exports were US$5.3bn compared to imports of US$4.0bn, we are increasingly concerned about the rate of growth of imports, at 12.2% y-o-y in March, which continues to significantly outpace exports growth, which actually declined by 8.6% y-o-y in March. The shrinking trade surplus is in line with our US$26.4bn 2011 year-to-date forecast for the trade balance, down from 2010's

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