Macroeconomic Forecast Guatemala

BMI View: Headline consumer price inflation in Guatemala reached 6.4% y-o-y in May this year, a significant increase from the 5.8% rate registered the previous month. However, this trend of higher consumer prices in the second quarter is being witnessed across the region, and in our view is more a result of cost-push pressures rather than strong domestic demand. With our Commodities team forecasting prices to cool in the second half of 2011, we hold to our 5.5% end-2011 projection.

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