Macroeconomic Forecast Honduras

BMI View: Although we do not believe the external environment for Honduras is particularly strong at present, the central bank's foreign reserve levels have continued to head higher in recent months, up to US$3.1bn in June, a 40.8% y-o-y increase. While we had previously been forecasting reserves to increase this year, at present our end-2011 US2.6bn is slightly on the low side. That said, until we get a clearer picture of external account dynamics in the first half of 2011 we prefer to maintain our projection.

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