Macroeconomic Forecast El Salvador

BMI View: The total volume of trade declined in April 2011, despite an improvement in coffee exports. Imports experienced a slightly greater decrease than exports, leading the trade deficit to narrow marginally for the month, to US$374mn, from US$426mn in March. We expect the growth in imports to continue to outpace that of exports, leading to a growing shortfall in the trade account over the coming years. We are forecasting that the trade deficit will reach US$3.8bn in 2011, widening to US$4.0bn in 2012.

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