Macroeconomic Forecast Nicaragua

BMI View: Industrial production in Nicaragua increased by 6.6% y-o-y in February, coming in at 10.0% on a 12 month-moving-average basis, the highest level experienced since 2001. While we maintain a relatively constructive outlook for the economy - driven in large part by an improving external environment - we believe that this rapid pace of growth in industrial production is unsustainable over the medium term. As a result, we expect expansion in industrial production to come in at 5.0% y-o-y at the end of 2011, slightly below the 6.3% figure posted at the end of 2010.

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