Macroeconomic Forecast Jamaica

BMI View: Jamaican commercial banks' average lending rate fell to 18.5% in January, the lowest level recorded for over a decade, according to data from the central bank (BOJ). We expect the BOJ to continue to loosen monetary policy over the coming quarters, in an effort to facilitate the island's economic recovery from a three-year recession. As a result, we believe that average lending rates will head lower over the coming quarters, to average 15.4% in 2011. That said, if supply-side inflationary pressures drive inflation higher than we are currently forecasting, this gradual decline in nominal lending

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