Macroeconomic Forecast Ecuador

BMI View: Ecuador ran a US$0.28bn trade shortfall in 2009, the first trade deficit since 2003. This was despite a 19.2% fall in imports, highlighting just how hard the export sector suffered from lower global oil prices. Crude oil exports have started off 2010 in much better shape, up 140% y-o-y in January, although still 26% below January 2007 levels. Given that oil prices were significantly weaker in 2007 that at the start of 2010, we are not optimistic about exports this year, and with the country's productive sector still weak, we are projecting a wider US$0.95bn trade deficit this year.

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