Macroeconomic Forecast JamaicaFebruary 2011 | Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI View: Headline consumer price inflation (CPI) finished 2010 at 11.8% y-o-y, 80 basis points above our own 11.0% estimate, and averaging 12.6% for the full year. We put this sharp uptick in CPI down to high imported inflationary pressures, which we expect to largely continue throughout the first half of 2011. While we expect high base effects to prompt a slowdown in global commodity prices in H211, we still see plenty of supply-side pressures causing upside pressure on Jamaica's CPI basket, and therefore hold to our end-2011 11.0 CPI projection.
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