Macroeconomic Forecast Paraguay

BMI View: Paraguay's headline consumer price inflation rose 2.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September, up from 1.6% y-o-y in August. Although the September data represent the third straight month to have seen prices rise y-o-y following the downward trend seen in the first half of 2009, the figure remains well below the September 2008 level, when prices were up 9.3% y-o-y. Indeed, we believe that, with the economy in line for only a muted recovery in 2010, pressure on prices will remain sanguine, with inflation set to rise to 4.5% by end-2010.

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