Latin American market data, analysis and forecasts from Business Monitor International, the trusted source for business information and intelligence on global emerging markets.
Latin America Monitor (LAM) provides political risk analysis, economic forecasts and business information for trade & industry across the emerging Latin American economies of the Andean, Brazil, the Caribbean, Central America, Mexico and the Southern Cone. Latin America Monitor is available as six printed, regional, monthly newsletters. Subscribers also receive password access to a searchable 24-month archive of Latin America Monitor articles and data online plus the ability to download PDFs of current and back issues of Latin America Monitor.
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Economy / Ecuador
BMI View: Foreign reserves finished 2011 at US$2.96bn, slightly up from 2010 levels, thanks to stronger energy prices and solid investment from China. However, by our calculations this figure actually represents a drop off in import cover, from a peak of 2.4 months back in 2009 to just 1.6 months by the end of 2011. This will be a worrying trend for the authorities, as the economy's...
2012-02-03Economy / Venezuela
BMI View: Venezuela's foreign reserves levels finished 2011 at US$27bn, a 7% fall from 2010 levels, despite oil prices being close to record highs. Not only was this the lowest nominal...
2012-02-03Economy / Ecuador
President Rafael Correa received a boost in late January, when members of a disbanded left-wing guerilla group handed him the sword of martyred reformer Eloy Alfaro on the centenary...
2012-02-03Economy / Brazil
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff performed well during a challenging first year in office, demonstrating a hard line approach to corruption which resulted in the resignation of six cabinet ministers. However, we believe she is increasingly moving away from a focus on corruption, as evidenced by a more measured approach to corruption allegations in recent months, to take an increasingly...
2012-02-02Economy / Brazil
Brazil's broad consumer price index (IPCA) came in at 6.5% y-o-y in December, just back within the upper limit of the central bank's target band of 4.5%-6.5%. Though we believe supply...
2012-02-02Economy / Brazil
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff visited Cuba in late January to boost political and economic ties between the two countries. Rousseff emphasized the country's commitment to helping...
2012-02-02Economy / Suriname
BMI View: We now believe that strong investment will see Suriname's average real GDP growth rate exceed the 5% mark over the next few years, aided by the government's focus on structural economic reform. However, we are not yet convinced that these reforms include a commitment to transparent political process, and if not this growth rate will be unsustainable over the long term.
2012-01-29Economy / Trinidad & Tobago
BMI View: Our long-term growth outlook for Trinidad and Tobago remains bleak due to a dearth of investment in the energy and non-energy sectors, as well as a mixed domestic credit...
2012-01-21Economy / Bahamas
We maintain our forecast for 2.1% real GDP growth in 2011, rising to 2.7% in 2012, as the Bahamas continues to slowly emerge from recession. However, we reiterate our negative outlook...
2012-01-10Economy / Costa Rica
The Banco Central de Costa Rica (BBCR) held its policy rate at 5.0% in December for the seventh straight month. This decision was based on dynamic, but stable growth in credit to the private sector and inflation remaining well within the BCCR's target band of 4%-6%, coming in at 4.9% y-o-y in November. We forecast the policy rate to come in at at 5.0% by end-2012, though we may...
2012-01-10Economy / Nicaragua
Inflation came in at 7.3% y-o-y in November, though it slowed slightly from 7.7% y-o-y in October, continuing to moderate from its August 2011 high. Inflation was driven by food prices,...
2012-01-10Economy / Nicaragua
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega will be inaugurated to a third term on January 10, and according to local news reports, the President is polling relatively well. Results of a poll...
2012-01-10Economy / Mexico
Recent rulings by Mexico's federal electoral authorities, including the Federal Election Institute (IFE) and Federal Election Tribunal (TRIFE), indicate that both bodies intend to exercise their powers more broadly during the 2012 election cycle than in previous years.
2012-01-05Economy / Mexico
BMI View: Structural problems with Mexican state-level financing will keep investors wary of sovereign local debt over the next few months. While ample financing options at the federal...
2011-12-22Economy / Mexico
We forecast Mexico's current account deficit to widen slightly to US$7.6bn in 2012, from US$7.3bn in 2011, as the goods trade deficit and a widening services trade deficit are unlikely...
2011-12-13Economy / Paraguay
We have revised down Paraguay's 2012 headline growth forecast to 3.2%, from 4.2% previously. Although we expect domestic demand to remain growth supportive, the ongoing global economic slowdown and consecutive foot and mouth outbreaks in the country's beef industry are likely to drag on the economy's expansion in the coming quarters.
2012-01-10Economy / Chile
BMI View: Chile's consumer price index continued to inch up in December, reaching 4.4% y-o-y, well above the upper limit of the 2.0% to 4.0% range targeted by the central bank. The...
2012-01-10Economy / Chile
Chile's Education Minister Felipe Bulnes stepped down at the end of December to be replaced by economist Harald Bayer. While the outgoing minister cited personal reasons for his decision...
2012-01-10
