Economic Analysis - Politics Could Undermine External Stability - JAN 2018

BMI View : Brazil will maintain its largest goods trade surpluses in a decade over the coming quarters, which will keep the current account shortfall modest and underpin external stability. That said, the upcoming election could drive capital outflows that would undermine growth.

  • Brazil's current account deficit will remain modest in 2018, underpinned by a strong goods trade surplus.

  • Capital inflows will cover external financing needs, bolstering reserves and external account stability.

  • Shortfalls Will Remain Modest
    Brazil - Current Account
    f = BMI forecast. Source: BCB, BMI

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