Economic Analysis - Growth Will Bottom In 2017 As Headwinds Ease - DEC 2017


BMI View: Multiple headwinds, in the form of low oil prices, declining crude production and delays in major infrastructure , are weigh ing on economic growth and have led us to downgrade our real GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018. With that said, we believe that 2017 will represent the nadir of the current economic cycle and that growth wil l accelerate from 2018 onwards.

Low oil prices, declining crude production and delays in major infrastructure projects continue to weigh on the Colombian economy, prompting us to downgrade our growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018. However, we believe that the first half of 2017 will represent the low point for the economy and that growth will accelerate in 2018 on the back of improving private consumption and investment. We forecast real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2017, down from our previous forecast of 2.3%, while our 2018 growth forecast stands at 2.6%, down from 2.9% previously.

Economic Growth Facing Multiple Headwinds

Growth Will Bottom In 2017
Colombia - GDP
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI/DANE

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