Economic Analysis - End Of NAFTA: Bilateral Brinkmanship Or Grand Bargain? - APR 2017

US trade negotiations over NAFTA will likely move towards bilateral talks with both Canada and Mexico, with the aim to secure major concessions from Mexico under the threat of protectionist measures.

  • Mexico will be less open to compromise after President Enrique Pena Nieto cancelled a state visit to Washington following US President Donald Trump's executive order to build a wall along the US-Mexican border.

  • An end to NAFTA, therefore, looks increasingly likely and raises the risk of retaliatory protectionist measures with major economic repercussions for Mexico, but also the US.

  • Off To A Bad Start
    Scenarios For Negotiations On NAFTA
    Source: BMI

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