Economic Analysis - Colombia - MAY 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 378.3 291.1 282.5 311.1 323.6 335.8 354.8
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.4 3.1 2.0 1.6 2.6 3.2 3.6
GDP per capita, USD 7,914 6,035 5,806 6,340 6,542 6,736 7,065
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 1.5 -25.3 3.3 5.3 5.5 5.3 5.0
Population, mn 47.79 48.23 48.65 49.07 49.46 49.85 50.22
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 3.2 6.8 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.3 3.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 2.9 5.0 7.5 4.3 3.4 3.5 3.3
Central bank policy rate, % eop 4.50 5.75 7.50 4.75 4.25 5.00 5.50
Exchange rate COP/USD, ave 2,002.55 2,745.77 3,053.42 2,952.16 3,011.28 3,100.15 3,137.38
Exchange rate COP/USD, eop 2,376.51 3,174.50 3,002.00 2,937.83 3,084.72 3,115.57 3,159.19
Budget balance, COPbn -19,844.7 -27,079.3 -34,925.5 -36,029.9 -35,122.9 -34,134.4 -30,147.9
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.6 -3.4 -4.0 -3.9 -3.6 -3.3 -2.7
Goods and services exports, USDbn 63.8 45.7 41.4 47.8 50.3 53.1 56.9
Goods and services imports, USDbn 75.1 64.2 54.4 56.7 59.2 62.5 65.8
Current account balance, USDbn -19.6 -18.6 -12.2 -10.4 -9.1 -9.3 -8.2
Current account balance, % of GDP -5.2 -6.4 -4.3 -3.3 -2.8 -2.8 -2.3
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 47.3 46.7 46.7 47.6 49.1 50.5 52.1
Import cover, months 7.6 8.7 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.5
Total external debt stock, USDbn 101.4 110.9 120.3 123.7 126.8 128.5 131.5
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 26.8 38.1 42.6 39.8 39.2 38.3 37.1
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,007.9 1,026.0 906.3 874.7 860.0 850.5 846.2
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 681.5 692.4 568.7 531.4 507.5 488.0 473.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 10.9 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.6