We remain unconvinced that the planned Nicaragua canal will be completed given the opaque nature of the project's financing structure. That said, with initial work on the project still likely to go forward, rising local concerns over the canal's environmental impact and the potential for the project to result in large-scale land expropriations will likely increase social unrest.
Nicaragua will seek to bolster its ties with Russia in the years ahead, in an attempt to mitigate the impact of reduced political and financial support from its most important regional ally, Venezuela. That said, a further deepening of ties with Russia risks cooling Nicaragua's relations with a number of its key trade partners including the US and the other Central American economies.
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