Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Public Policy To Focus On Diversifying Economy - AUG 2014

Andean July 2014 / Bolivia / Economy

Bolivia's stock of foreign reserves, which has swelled in recent years, will trend down in the coming quarters. A significant driver of this development will be the central government's programme to use reserves to finance industrialisation projects, in an effort to diversify the economy away from a growing reliance on the energy sector.

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Industry Trend Analysis - Increased Biofuels Use Is No Panacea - AUG 2014

Brazil July 2014 / Brazil / Industry

We continue to expect that measures to reduce fuel subsidies in Brazil are unlikely ahead of the country's October election. While plans to blend an increased amount of biofuels into the country's refined fuel products could mitigate some pressure on state-owned Petrobras' margins, we do not believe that this will be sufficient to revive the downstream segment.

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Macroeconomic Forecasts - Trinidad & Tobago - AUG 2014

Caribbean July 2014 / Trinidad & Tobago / Economy

Macroeconomic Forecast

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Risk Summary - Costa Rica - AUG 2014

Central America July 2014 / Costa Rica / Economy

Costa Rica's Short-Term Political Risk Rating held steady at 69.4 this month, and we expect it to remain relatively stable in the coming months. Costa Rica's high scores in the 'policy continuity' and 'policymaking' components bolster its overall rating.

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Economic Analysis - Surprise Rate Cut Marks End Of Easing Cycle - AUG 2014

Mexico July 2014 / Mexico / Economy

We expect the Banco de México's (Banxico) to hold its policy rate at 3.00% through H115, following a surprise 50 basis points (bps) rate cut on June 6. We believe that stronger economic activity growth and above-target inflation will drive rate hikes in H215, and we forecast Banxico's policy rate to end 2015 at 3.50%.

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Risk Summary - Uruguay - AUG 2014

Southern Cone July 2014 / Uruguay / Economy

The ruling coalition Frente Amplio and the main opposition National Party of Uruguay have decided on their presidential candidates for the general election scheduled for October 26. The decision follows the results and subsequent discussions of the first primary elections in June. The ruling coalition has voted ex-president Tabaré Vázquez as its presidential candidate, with Raúl Sendic as a likely vice president. Political risk will be slightly higher than usual over the coming months due to the election, but overall political stability will remain, underpinning Uruguay's high score in our Political Risk Ratings.

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