Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Risk Summary - Colombia - NOV 2014

Andean October 2014 / Colombia / Economy

Colombia's Short-Term Political Risk Ratings (STPRR) score of 67.3 remains unchanged from last month, ranking seventh out of 17 Latin American countries scored. Colombia's STPRR score is bolstered by a high degree of policy continuity, which has been reinforced by the recent re-election of President Juan Manuel Santos. Santos' re-election also increases the likelihood of a peace agreement with left-wing insurgent groups. However, attacks on energy infrastructure by these groups will likely continue throughout negotiations.

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Risk Summary - Brazil - NOV 2014

Brazil October 2014 / Brazil / Economy

The Brazilian ethanol sector would benefit from a win by Partido Socialista Brasileiro candidate Marina Silva in the country's upcoming presidential election. Latest polling data shows that Silva is virtually tied with President Dilma Rousseff of the Partido dos Trabalhadores in both the first and second rounds.

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Risk Summary - Barbados - NOV 2014

Caribbean October 2014 / Barbados / Political Risk

Barbados' Short-Term Political Risk Rating (STPRR) held steady at 68.8 this month, placing the country 14th out of 21 countries in the Caribbean. Barbados' lowest score in the STPRR comes in the 'social stability' component of the rating. However, a falling unemployment rate and lower inflation could lead us to upgrade the 'social stability' component of the STPRR over the coming quarters. A stronger score in the 'social stability' component would, in turn, boost the overall STPRR, indicating that political risk in Barbados is subsiding.

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Economic Analysis - Severe Weather To Continue Tempering Growth - NOV 2014

Central America October 2014 / El Salvador / Economy

Stronger US growth will act as a tailwind for El Salvador's economy in the coming quarters, boosting remittance inflows and demand for the country's manufactured goods. Even still, real GDP growth will remain tepid, at 1.5% in 2014 and 2.0% in 2015, as the fallout from the El Niño weather pattern continues to act as a drag on the economy's performance.

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Data Release - Mexico - NOV 2014

Mexico October 2014 / Mexico / Economy

Recent data reaffirms our view that Mexico's economic recovery is gaining traction, a trend we expect to build strength in the coming quarters. Mexico's IGAE Economic Activity index has averaged growth of 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first seven months of the year, an improvement from 1.3% y-o-y during the same period in 2013. This is in line with our real GDP growth forecast of 2.6% in 2014, up from 1.1% in 2013. A main driver of stronger economic growth in recent months has been an improvement in the manufacturing and construction sectors, both which are set to accelerate in the coming months as US demand for Mexican goods increases and investment into infrastructure picks up. Moreover, we expect the economy to continue to improve next year, as the recent liberalistaion of the energy sector attracts significant foreign investment. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.7% in 2015.

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Macroeconomic Forecasts - Paraguay - NOV 2014

Southern Cone October 2014 / Paraguay / Economy

Paraguay Macroeconomic Forecasts

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