Latin America Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Investment Slowdown Will Limit Growth - JULY 2017

Andean June 2017 / Bolivia / Economy

Economic growth in Bolivia will decelerate in the coming quarters, as consumption and investment face headwinds from government efforts to rein in its twin deficits. Public investment will remain a key driver of growth, as private investment is weighed down by the country's relatively weak policy environment.

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Industry Trend Analysis - Licensing Round Ramp-Up Offers Fresh Start For Brazil - JUNE 2017

Brazil May 2017 / Brazil / Industry

More frequent oil and gas licensing rounds across Brazil's vast resource base will offer the industry an opportunity to start anew. Increasingly business-friendly contract terms and favourable project economics will attract significant investment into the sector over the next three years.

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Political Risk Analysis - FNM Victory Brings Strong Mandate, Though Fiscal Challenges Remain - JULY 2017

Caribbean June 2017 / Bahamas / Political Risk

Newly elected Bahamian Prime Minister Hubert Minnis will benefit from a strong mandate and full control of the Assembly as he attempts to deliver on campaign promises. We expect progress on promised anti-corruption measures, while the Minnis government will struggle to rein in surging deficits as it attempts to balance conflicting promises of fiscal consolidation and tax breaks.

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Economic Analysis - Remittances Will Keep Current Account In Surplus - JULY 2017

Central America June 2017 / Guatemala / Economy

Surging remittance flows will see Guatemala's current account remain in surplus. However, we expect this surplus to narrow over our five-year forecast, as remittance flows slow somewhat, and imports outpace weakened export growth.

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Industry Forecast - Banking Sector: Asset Growth To Slow As Economic Uncertainty Persists - JULY 2017

Mexico June 2017 / Mexico / Economy

Uncertainty over US-Mexico trade relations will temper economic activity, as well as asset and loan growth in Mexico over the next couple of years. Despite a short-term deceleration, we maintain a favourable growth outlook on the sector over out 10-year forecast period as structural reforms will drive expansion.

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Industry Forecast - Banking Sector: Improvement On The Horizon - JUNE 2017

Southern Cone May 2017 / Chile / Industry

Loan growth will accelerate in Chile in the coming quarters on lower interest rates and a broad economic recovery. The sector will remain Latin America's most stable in the years ahead, supported by recovering credit growth and conservative lending practices.

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