Latin America Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Macroeconomic Forecasts - Bolivia - SEPT 2017

Andean July 2017 / Bolivia / Economy

Macroeconomic Forecasts

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Economic Analysis - Recovery Looks More Cyclical Than Structural - SEPT 2017

Brazil July 2017 / Brazil / Economy

The Brazilian economy will stage a modest recovery over the coming quarters, driven largely by a cyclical rebound in consumption. Investment will remain subdued in response to uncertainty over structural reforms and the upcoming general election.

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Economic Analysis - Mounting Headwinds To Constrain Growth - SEPT 2017

Caribbean July 2017 / Cuba / Economy

We expect Cuba's economic growth to decelerate over the coming years, despite a steady performance in the first half of 2016. Deteriorating relations with the US and an end to subsidised oil imports from Venezuela will act as the primary headwinds to growth moving forwards.

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Economic Analysis - Public Spending Efforts Undermined By Persistently Weak Tax Compliance - SEPT 2017

Central America July 2017 / Guatemala / Economy

An increase in public spending on social programs and security will drive a modest widening of Guatemala's fiscal deficit in 2017 and 2018. In addition, revenue growth will remain limited, with a persistently poor tax compliance rate limiting the government's fiscal capacity.

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Economic Analysis - Consolidation Efforts To Stall Growth In Debt Burden - SEPT 2017

Mexico July 2017 / Mexico / Economy

The Mexican government will continue its fiscal consolidation drive in 2017, stalling the spike in public sector debt seen in recent years. July 2018's presidential election poses a risk to these efforts, as populist candidate Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador has proposed higher social spending.

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Currency Forecast - ARS: Real Rates A Source Of Strength - SEPT 2017

Southern Cone July 2017 / Argentina / Economy

We are neutral on the Argentine peso over the short term. Over the long term, a robust growth outlook and rising real rates will drive outperformance in total return terms.

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