Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Risk Summary - Colombia - DEC 2014

Andean October 2014 / Colombia / Economy

Colombia's Short-Term Political Risk Ratings (STPRR) score of 67.3 remains unchanged from last month, ranking seventh out of 17 Latin American countries scored. Colombia's STPRR score is bolstered by a high degree of policy continuity, which has been reinforced by the recent re-election of President Juan Manuel Santos. Santos' re-election also increases the likelihood of a peace agreement with left-wing insurgent groups. However, attacks on energy infrastructure by these groups will likely continue throughout negotiations.

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Risk Summary - Brazil - DEC 2014

Brazil October 2014 / Brazil / Economy

Planned subsidy reform will help Brazilian national oil company Petrobras address rising pressures on its balance sheet. Brazil's fuel subsidies, which are paid for by Petrobras, have proved unsustainable, driving up the company's heavy debt burden.

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Economic Analysis - Falling Oil Output To Hamper Growth - DEC 2014

Caribbean October 2014 / Belize / Economy

Belize's economy will be hampered by falling oil production in the coming years, underpinning our forecast that real GDP growth will average a tepid 2.5% annual expansion through 2018. Indeed, although stronger tourist arrivals from the US and rising sugar prices will provide modest support for the economy, but this will largely be offset by weaker exports and higher unemployment.

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Economic Analysis - Private Consumption Facing Long-Term Headwinds - DEC 2014

Central America October 2014 / El Salvador / Economy

Stronger remittance inflows and a falling unemployment rate will boost El Salvador's private consumption growth in the coming quarters. However, with a significant proportion of the population living in poverty, household spending will remain highly exposed to economic shocks.

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Industry Trend Analysis - Offshore Gas Development Signals New Era - DEC 2014

Mexico October 2014 / Mexico / Industry

Pemex's award of a subsea production contract in the Lakach field represents the first deepwater development by the company following Mexico's historic Round Zero auction.

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Risk Summary - Paraguay - DEC 2014

Southern Cone October 2014 / Paraguay / Economy

Paraguay's score in our proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index places it just under the regional average of 59.7 out of 100. Disputes with neighbours over shared power resources and sporadic attacks by the insurgent group Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo weigh on the 'External And Security' component of the composite score (60.0). However, low inflation and unemployment offsets the ongoing tensions with the indigenous community over land rights, resulting in an above average score in the 'Social Stability' component (55.0). Paraguay ranks ninth out of 17 Latin American countries in this metric.

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