Latin America Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Stimulus Will Push Deficit Modestly Wider - NOV 2017

Andean September 2017 / Peru / Economy

Increased public investment aimed at stimulating Peru's weakened economy will drive the country's fiscal deficit wider over the coming quarters. Short-term borrowing increases will not significantly weaken Peru's sovereign credentials, however, and we expect a return to fiscal prudence to see the deficit begin to narrow from 2019.

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Economic Analysis - BRICS Summit: Three Key Takeaways - NOV 2017

Brazil September 2017 / Global / Economy

The ninth annual summit of the BRICS did not result in any 'groundbreaking' initiatives, but we can nevertheless glean several key takeaways: the diversity of the BRICS means few common goals are identified; trade liberalisation is being pushed by China; and India is encouraging cooperation in moving the economies up the value chain.

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Macroeconomic Forecasts - Jamaica - NOV 2017

Caribbean September 2017 / Jamaica / Economy

Macroeconomic forecasts

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Macroeconomic Forecasts - Nicaragua - NOV 2017

Central America September 2017 / Nicaragua / Economy

Macroeconomic Forecasts.

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Industry Trend Analysis - NAFTA Renegotiation Less Of A Risk Than Previously Thought - NOV 2017

Mexico September 2017 / Mexico / Industry

We believe the downside risks to automotive production in Mexico have been reduced after the USTR stated its objectives for the renegotiation of NAFTA and, therefore, provided some clarity as to the direction talks will take. The biggest risks that we identified in previous analyses, including the introduction of permanent tariffs or a significant rise in rules of origin requirements, have both lessened substantially but some risks still loom.

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Political Risk Analysis - Discontent With Established Politicians Opens Door For Outside Candidates - NOV 2017

Southern Cone September 2017 / Latin America / Political Risk

Weak economic growth and sweeping corruption allegations have seen presidential approval ratings approach multi-decade lows in many of Latin America's largest economies. This will open the door for anti-establishment candidates, with risks of policy shifts stemming from outsider victories highest in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia.

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