Latin America Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Investment Growth To Return To Peru - DEC 2017

Andean October 2017 / Peru / Economy

Economic activity in Peru will benefit from a turnaround in investment growth, driven by the mining sector and public stimulus and reconstruction efforts. An ambitious infrastructure agenda may also bolster investment, but we note significant hurdles and political risks remain.

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Industry Trend Analysis - Few Drivers For Construction Recovery - DEC 2017

Brazil October 2017 / Brazil / Industry

Political turmoil, deep public sector budget cuts and economic weakness will continue to dampen construction activity in Brazil over the coming 12 months, prompting a further downgrade in our growth expectations for 2017 and 2018. Private investment into existing brownfield assets will remain elevated, however, greenfield construction intensive projects will remain unattractive given a lack of confidence in the market.

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Economic Analysis - Widening Current Account Deficit Will Not Threaten External Stability - DEC 2017

Caribbean October 2017 / Jamaica / Economy

Import growth, driven by rising fuel costs, will push Jamaica's current account deficit wider in the coming years. Despite this, capital inflows and robust international reserves will support external stability.

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Macroeconomic Forecasts - Nicaragua - DEC 2017

Central America October 2017 / Nicaragua / Economy

Macroeconomic Forecasts.

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Economic Analysis - US Will Drive External Account Improvement, In Shadow Of NAFTA Talks - DEC 2017

Mexico October 2017 / Mexico / Economy

Mexico's current account will narrow in 2017 on the back of a surge in manufactured good exports and remittance growth. Although Mexico remains exposed to risks from a shift in US trade policy, these risks will likely abate, leaving external accounts broadly stable over the coming years.

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Currency Forecast - Currency Roundup: Neutral Through End-2017 - DEC 2017

Southern Cone October 2017 / Latin America / Economy

We are neutral on Latin American currencies over the coming months. In line with our view, the region's units have largely traded sideways over the last quarter as rallies in H117 ran out of steam (see 'Currency Roundup: Little Upside Left This Year', July 17). While strong real interest rate differentials with the US will support most units moving forward, we see little scope for additional upside this year due to limited price gains for key commodity exports and significant policy uncertainty ahead of a slate of upcoming elections.

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