Latin America Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Lower Oil Prices Will Constrain Real GDP Growth - JUNE 2015

Andean May 2015 / Ecuador / Economy

Due in large part to oil prices, which we forecast will remain very low compared to recent years, we forecast a sharp decline in real GDP growth in Ecuador over the next several years. Lower oil receipts will have a particularly significant impact on government expenditures, and will indirectly weigh on private consumption.

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Economic Analysis - No Respite For Current Account In 2015 - JUNE 2015

Brazil May 2015 / Brazil / Economy

Brazil's current account deficit will continue widening in 2015, due in large part to structurally weaker goods trade dynamics. Meanwhile, a weak growth outlook and poor business environment will temper investment inflows, keeping the country's balance of payments position under pressure.

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Political Risk Analysis - Fracturing Opposition Will Support Continued Austerity - JUNE 2015

Caribbean May 2015 / Barbados / Political Risk

Barbados' ruling party, the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) will continue to move ahead with its legislative agenda, specifically its austerity measures, in the years ahead. The DLP's strong policymaking position will be enabled by low levels of public dissent and internal conflicts within the opposition Barbados Labour Party.

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Macroeconomic Forecasts - Nicaragua - JUNE 2015

Central America May 2015 / Nicaragua / Economy

Macroeconomic Forecasts.

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Political Risk Analysis - Ruling PRI Will Retain Dominance After Midterms - JUNE 2015

Mexico May 2015 / Mexico / Political Risk

Mexico's ruling Partido Revolucionario Institucional will remain the dominant party after the June 7 midterm elections. However, policymaking will become more fragmented in the next few years as the main opposition parties seek to regain popular support ahead of the 2018 presidential race.

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Economic Analysis - Current Account Deficit Will Widen - JUNE 2015

Southern Cone May 2015 / Paraguay / Economy

Paraguay's current account deficit will widen further in 2015 as currency weakness in major trade partners reduces the country's export competitiveness. Meanwhile, increased security risks as well as the limited progress toward promised investor-friendly reforms will temper foreign investment into Paraguay through the year.

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