Latin America Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Political Risk Analysis - Morales' Attempt For Fourth Term Will Be Rejected - MAR 2017

Andean February 2017 / Bolivia / Political Risk

Bolivian President Evo Morales' decision to run a fourth term in 2019, in spite of a 2016 referendum ruling it out, will solidify growing opposition against him. This will result in Morales' defeat in the election, bolstering Bolivia's democratic development.

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Macroeconomic Forecasts - Brazil - MAR 2017

Brazil February 2017 / Brazil / Economy

Macroeconomic data and forecasts

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Economic Analysis - Developed Markets To Fuel Growth In Caribbean Tourism - MAR 2017

Caribbean February 2017 / Caribbean / Economy

We hold a constructive view on the tourism sector in the Caribbean in 2017, as stronger economic expansion in developed markets will fuel robust arrivals growth. However, this positivity does not extend to Cuba, which will receive fewer US visitors under the Trump administration, or Haiti, which was devastated by Hurricane Matthew.

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Economic Analysis - Government Investment Initiatives Will Support Growth - MAR 2017

Central America February 2017 / Costa Rica / Economy

Progress on infrastructure projects and government efforts to incentivise private investment will support Costa Rican real GDP growth in the next few years. These dynamics will be complemented by resilient private consumption, ensuring that real economic expansion remains among the strongest in Central America.

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Industry Forecast - Mass Grocery Retail - Mexico - Q1 2017 - MAR 2017

Mexico February 2017 / Mexico / Industry

We forecast sustained growth in Mexico's MGR sector throughout our forecast period to 2020, driven by two key trends: strong demand for branded products among a growing middle class, and the increased formalisation of retail in more remote areas.

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Political Risk Analysis - Chile Vamos Likely To Win General Elections, While Independents Make Historic Gains - MAR 2017

Southern Cone February 2017 / Chile / Political Risk

The centre-right Chile Vamos coalition will likely be the victor in Chile's November 2017 general elections, capitalising on the historically low levels of popularity of the incumbent Nueva Mayor?a government, cementing Chile's business-friendly reputation. That said, we expect independent leftist parties to win a record number of seats in the election.

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