Latin American market data, analysis and forecasts from Business Monitor International, the trusted source for business information and intelligence on global emerging markets.
Latin America Monitor (LAM) provides political risk analysis, economic forecasts and business information for trade & industry across the emerging Latin American economies of the Andean, Brazil, the Caribbean, Central America, Mexico and the Southern Cone. Latin America Monitor is available as six printed, regional, monthly newsletters. Subscribers also receive password access to a searchable 24-month archive of Latin America Monitor articles and data online plus the ability to download PDFs of current and back issues of Latin America Monitor.
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Economy / Venezuela
BMI View: Preliminary figures released by the Banco Central de Reserva de Venezuela put inflation at 27.6% for 2011, slightly lower than our 29% estimate. We forecast inflation to remain elevated in 2012 on the back of the government's expansive fiscal and monetary policies which contributed to 60.4% y-o-y growth in M2 in November 2011. We also expect the government to step up fiscal...
2012-01-06Economy / Colombia
Gustavo Petro, a former leftist guerrilla who is now a prominent socialist politician, was sworn in as mayor of Bogotá on January 1. The post is considered to be the country's second...
2012-01-06Economy / Colombia
BMI View: Colombia's Q311 real GDP data, released in late December, exceeded expectations with growth coming in at 7.7% y-o-y. According to the central bank, domestic demand continues...
2012-01-06Economy / Brazil
Brazil's increasing economic clout at the global level is being backed up by a growing military presence, which we expect to become more prominent in 2012. In late December the Brazilian government announced that it was signing a defence agreement with its Peruvian counterpart, and this was followed up in early January by news that the defence ministry was signing a supply contract...
2012-01-05Economy / Brazil
BMI View: Brazil's broad consumer price inflation index (IPCA) registered a slowdown in growth in November 2011, to 6.64% y-o-y from 6.97% the previous month. This trend is in line...
2012-01-05Economy / Brazil
We believe the Port of Santos' plan to double its capacity by 2013 should provide a much-needed boost to the country's trade capacity. However, while we have long maintained the view...
2012-01-04Economy / Trinidad & Tobago
BMI View: Our long-term growth outlook for Trinidad and Tobago remains bleak due to a dearth of investment in the energy and non-energy sectors, as well as a mixed domestic credit picture. We therefore expect real GDP growth to come in at just 2.0% and 3.5% in 2012 and 2013.
2012-01-21Economy / Bahamas
We maintain our forecast for 2.1% real GDP growth in 2011, rising to 2.7% in 2012, as the Bahamas continues to slowly emerge from recession. However, we reiterate our negative outlook...
2012-01-10Economy / Trinidad & Tobago
Guyana's central bank maintained its benchmark repo rate at 3.0% in late December 2011, as inflation increased to 5.7% y-o-y in November from 3.7% y-o-y in October, largely on the back...
2012-01-09Economy / Costa Rica
The Banco Central de Costa Rica (BBCR) held its policy rate at 5.0% in December for the seventh straight month. This decision was based on dynamic, but stable growth in credit to the private sector and inflation remaining well within the BCCR's target band of 4%-6%, coming in at 4.9% y-o-y in November. We forecast the policy rate to come in at at 5.0% by end-2012, though we may...
2012-01-10Economy / Nicaragua
Inflation came in at 7.3% y-o-y in November, though it slowed slightly from 7.7% y-o-y in October, continuing to moderate from its August 2011 high. Inflation was driven by food prices,...
2012-01-10Economy / Nicaragua
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega will be inaugurated to a third term on January 10, and according to local news reports, the President is polling relatively well. Results of a poll...
2012-01-10Economy / Mexico
Recent rulings by Mexico's federal electoral authorities, including the Federal Election Institute (IFE) and Federal Election Tribunal (TRIFE), indicate that both bodies intend to exercise their powers more broadly during the 2012 election cycle than in previous years.
2012-01-05Economy / Mexico
BMI View: Structural problems with Mexican state-level financing will keep investors wary of sovereign local debt over the next few months. While ample financing options at the federal...
2011-12-22Economy / Mexico
We forecast Mexico's current account deficit to widen slightly to US$7.6bn in 2012, from US$7.3bn in 2011, as the goods trade deficit and a widening services trade deficit are unlikely...
2011-12-13Economy / Paraguay
We have revised down Paraguay's 2012 headline growth forecast to 3.2%, from 4.2% previously. Although we expect domestic demand to remain growth supportive, the ongoing global economic slowdown and consecutive foot and mouth outbreaks in the country's beef industry are likely to drag on the economy's expansion in the coming quarters.
2012-01-10Economy / Chile
BMI View: Chile's consumer price index continued to inch up in December, reaching 4.4% y-o-y, well above the upper limit of the 2.0% to 4.0% range targeted by the central bank. The...
2012-01-10Economy / Chile
Chile's Education Minister Felipe Bulnes stepped down at the end of December to be replaced by economist Harald Bayer. While the outgoing minister cited personal reasons for his decision...
2012-01-10
