Latin America Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Copper Exports Will Support Current Account - JAN 2018

Andean November 2017 / Peru / Economy

Strong mining export growth will narrow Peru's current account in the coming years. Copper price growth and production gains will be the primary driver of gains, while robust capital inflows will amply cover financing needs.

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Market Strategy - Politics-Driven Sell Off Has Further To Run - JAN 2018

Brazil November 2017 / Brazil / Finance

Brazilian assets are likely to see further downside over the coming months due to a poor political outlook that will weaken growth prospects. This will reflect a repricing of assets in light of the diminishing prospects for pension reform, uncertainty over the outcome of the 2018 election and weak near-term growth.

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Economic Analysis - Gradual Recovery To Continue - JAN 2018

Caribbean November 2017 / Jamaica / Economy

Growth in Jamaica will gradually accelerate in the coming years, supported by remittances and tourism from the US and an improving business environment. The Jamaican government's commitment to an IMF-stewarded reform programme will under an uptick in investment and productivity.

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Political Risk Analysis - Election Results Tighten FSLN's Grip On Power - JAN 2018

Central America November 2017 / Nicaragua / Political Risk

Municipal elections on November 5 in Nicaragua saw the ruling FSLN win a decisive victory, as we anticipated. However, concerns over the legitimacy of the election results will increase the chances that the US passes the NICA Act in the months ahead, reducing multilateral funding for the country.

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Political Risk Analysis - Fractured Field Will Bolster AMLO's Presidential Bid - JAN 2018

Mexico November 2017 / Mexico / Political Risk

Anti-establishment sentiment amid rising security and corruption concerns will bolster support for left-leaning populist Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador (AMLO) in Mexico's 2018 presidential election. While negative partisanship will likely cap his support, a large and fractured field could enable an AMLO victory.

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Economic Analysis - Private Sector Debt: Political Risks Undermining Debt Appetite - JAN 2018

Southern Cone November 2017 / Latin America / Economy

Private sector debt levels will rise across Latin America in 2018 on the back of low interest rates and an improving growth outlook. However, political uncertainty will remain a major headwind, potentially undermining investment.

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