Latin America Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Trade Dynamics Will Keep Current Account Deficit Wide - JULY 2015

Andean June 2015 / Ecuador / Economy

Ecuador's current account balance will remain under pressure, despite the recent bounce in oil prices which has narrowed the deficit in recent months. The strong US dollar and sluggish recovery in oil prices will keep the country's current account in the red for the next several years.


Market Strategy - Could We Be Wrong About BRL? - JULY 2015

Brazil June 2015 / Brazil / Economy

We maintain a firmly negative stance on the Brazilian real, expecting additional downside in light of very weak macroeconomic fundamentals, which will limit capital inflows, and a significant deterioration in the terms of trade over recent quarters. However, we are beginning to explore the potential that our outlook on the currency is too bearish.


Economic Analysis - Tourism Rebound Will Bolster Foreign Investment - JULY 2015

Caribbean June 2015 / Barbados / Economy

Barbados' current account shortfalls will narrow in the years ahead as rising tourist arrivals bolster services exports and a public sector wage freeze tempers import demand. Meanwhile, the financial account will be supported by a modest uptick in foreign direct investment into the country's tourism sector.


Political Risk Analysis - Strengthening Ties With Russia Will Threaten Diplomatic Balancing Act - JULY 2015

Central America June 2015 / Nicaragua / Political Risk

Nicaragua will seek to bolster its ties with Russia in the years ahead, in an attempt to mitigate the impact of reduced political and financial support from its most important regional ally, Venezuela. That said, a further deepening of ties with Russia risks cooling Nicaragua's relations with a number of its key trade partners including the US and the other Central American economies.


Industry Trend Analysis - Full Potential Rests On Greater Government Support - JULY 2015

Mexico June 2015 / Mexico / Industry

Mexico's Round One continues to progress, supporting our optimistic view of the country's oil and gas industry in light of the ongoing sector liberalisation.


Economic Analysis - Capital Spending Will Drive Widening Fiscal Gap - JULY 2015

Southern Cone June 2015 / Paraguay / Economy

The government of Paraguay will ramp up capital expenditures in the months ahead to improve the long-term attractiveness of the country for foreign investment. This will widen the country's fiscal deficit as revenue growth remains subdued due to base effects, slowing economic growth and little room to implement new taxes.