Latin America Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Political Risk Analysis - Crib Sheet: Tensions High Heading Into Election Season - APR 2018

Andean March 2018 / Colombia / Political Risk

Social and political tensions will remain high as Colombia heads into election season. Legislative and presidential elections will take place amidst the controversial peace deal with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias Colombianas (FARC), increased violence in rural areas and a surge of Venezuelan refugees. The nation remains divided about the integration of the FARC, who have been guaranteed political protection, legislative seats and economic benefits as part of the 2016 peace deal.


Economic Analysis - Rate Hikes Finished As Pension Reform Appears Unlikely - APR 2018

Brazil March 2018 / Brazil / Economy

The Banco Central do Brazil will hold interest rates steady over the coming quarters as inflation trends higher and the prospects for pension reform fade.


Economic Analysis - Economic Reforms Underpin Positive Growth Outlook - APR 2018

Caribbean March 2018 / Jamaica / Economy

Tourism will support growth acceleration in Jamaica in 2018, following a muted 2017 due to agricultural sector weakness. Economic reforms and a gradual loosening of austerity measures will support higher growth rates over the long-term.


Macroeconomic Forecasts - Guatemala - APR 2018

Central America March 2018 / Guatemala / Economy

Macroeconomic Indicators


Political Risk Analysis - Corruption & Security Focus Of Presidential Platforms - APR 2018

Mexico March 2018 / Mexico / Political Risk

As we come to the end of the primary season, leftist-populist candidate Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador (AMLO) remains the frontrunner in Mexico's presidential race, followed by the PAN-led coalition and the ruling PRI's coalition in a tight race. All three coalitions and independent candidates will run on anti-corruption and security policies, with non-establishment candidates likely to have more credibility on these issues. Official platform positions will differ more on economic policies, with PRI and PAN-led coalitions more or less continuing the status quo, in stark contrast to the leftist-nationalistic economic policies of AMLO.


Economic Analysis - Expenditure Constraints Support Deficit Reduction - APR 2018

Southern Cone March 2018 / Argentina / Economy

Argentina's fiscal deficit will narrow in 2018 amid growth-driven revenue gains and constrained expenditure growth. That said, debt levels will continue to rise, limiting potential for tax cuts.