Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Latin America

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Macroeconomic Forecasts - Bolivia - SEPT 2014

Andean July 2014 / Bolivia / Economy

Macroeconomic Forecasts

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Economic Analysis - Domestic And External Headwinds To Weigh On Growth - OCT 2014

Brazil September 2014 / Brazil / Economy

A less favourable external environment, combined with a weak domestic business environment, will constrain Brazilian growth in the coming quarters. Moreover, we believe that President Dilma Rousseff will be unable to make the substantial reforms necessary to boost productivity and investment in a second term, underpinning our subdued multi-year growth outlook.

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Long-Term Political Outlook - Corruption And Violent Crime To Remain Atop The Agenda - OCT 2014

Caribbean September 2014 / Belize / Political Risk

Belize will continue along its present political trajectory over the next 10 years, with the government remaining unable to tackle corruption, and violent crime posing an ongoing threat to citizens. Nevertheless, we believe that Belizean society will remain stable, and future transitions of power will occur within Belize's constitutional framework.

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Risk Summary - El Salvador - OCT 2014

Central America September 2014 / El Salvador / Economy

El Salvador's Short-Term Political Risk Rating (STPRR) held steady at 49.6 this month. This rating incorporates an elevated level of uncertainty as newly-inaugurated President Salvador Sánchez Cerén takes the helm. Indeed, while we expect broad policy continuity following the intra-party transfer of the presidency, the president's shift in tactics on a number of issues - including in dealing with the powerful gangs in the country - may provide fertile ground for greater unrest and political polarisation.

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Risk Summary - Mexico - OCT 2014

Mexico September 2014 / Mexico / Economy

Mexico maintains its leading position at the top of our Latin American Power Risk/Reward Ratings this quarter, as the recent liberalisation of the country's energy sector underpins our positive outlook for the sector. At the time of writing, secondary legislation for energy sector reform, which will define implementation terms, has been approved by the senate and is pending approval by the lower house. We see the bill being approved by August the latest, which will unlock Mexico's significant energy sector potential, including regarding the power sub-sector. News that Spanish utility Iberdrola plans to invest USD5bn in Mexico's power sector between 2014 and 2018 comes as a huge vote of confidence for the ongoing energy sector reform (see 'Entrenching Its Position In A High-Growth Market', June 16 2014). We highlight that the growth prospects for Mexico's gas and renewables segments are particularly strong, and we expect European utilities - such as Iberdrola - to continue to be drawn to these investment opportunities.

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Political Risk Analysis - V?zquez Still Most Likely Successor To Presidency - SEPT 2014

Southern Cone July 2014 / Uruguay / Political Risk

We maintain our view that the ruling Frente Amplio party will retain the presidency following the general election scheduled for October, with former president Tabaré Vázquez at the helm. Vázquez won his primary decisively in June, and we believe that while opposition support is on the rise, it will remain too fractured to mount an effective challenge. We expect broad continuity in terms of policymaking.

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